Nate Silver

Nathaniel Lees “Nate” Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician and writer who analyzers baseball (see sabermetrics ) and elections (see psephology ). He is the editor-in-chief of ESPN ‘s FiveThirtyEight and a Special Correspondent for ABC News . Silver first gained public recognition for ontwikkelingslanden PECOTA , [3] a system for forecasting the performance and career development of Major League Baseball players, welke have sold to and dan managed for Baseball Prospectus from 2003 to 2009. [4]

After successfully Silver called the outcomes in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 US Presidential election by , he was named one of The World’s 100 Most Influential People in Time in 2009. [5]

In 2010, the FiveThirtyEight blog was licensed for publication in The New York Times . [6] [7] In 2012 and 2013 FiveThirtyEight won Webby Awards as the “Best Political Blog” from the International Academy of Digital Arts and Sciences .

In the 2012 United States presidential election by Silver Correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia . [8]

In July 2013 FiveThirtyEight was sold to ESPN, and Silver became zijn Editor-in-Chief. [9] The ESPN-owned FiveThirtyEight launched on March 17, 2014. The site dealing with a broad range of subjects under the rubric of ” data journalism “. [10]

Silver’s book, The Signal and the Noise , was published in September 2012. It subsequently reached the New York Times bestseller list for Nonfiction, and was named by Amazon.com as the No. 1 best Nonfiction Book of 2012. [11] The Signal and the Noise won the 2013 Phi Beta Kappa Award in Science . [12] The book has translated leg JSON nine languages: Chinese (separate editions in traditional and simplified characters), Czech, German, Italian, Polish, Portuguese, Spanish, Russian, and Romanian.

Having earned a bachelor’s degree from The University of Chicago in 2000, Silver has since bone Awarded four honorary doctoral degrees: from Ripon College (2013), The New School (2013), The University of Leuven (2013), and Amherst College (2014 ).

Early life

Silver was born in East Lansing, Michigan , the sun or Sally (nee Thrun), a community activist, and Brian David Silver, a former chair of the political science department at Michigan State University . [13] [14] Silver’s mother’s family, or English and German descent, of includes verschillende distinguished one and women, zoals his maternal great-grandfather, Harmon Lewis, who was president of the Alcoa Steamship Company, Inc. [15] Silver has DESCRIBED himself as ” half Jewish “. [15] [16]

Silver Showed a proficiency in math from a young age. [17] volgens to journalist William Hageman, “Silver caught the baseball bug-when he was 6 …. It was 1984, the year the Detroit Tigers won the World Series . The Tigers became his team and baseball his sport. And if there’s anything dat goes hand in glove with baseball, it’s numbers, Another or Silver’s childhood interests ( “it’s always more interesting to apply it to batting Averages dan algebra class”). [18]

As a student at East Lansing High School , 1996 Silver won first place in the State of Michigan in the 49th annual John S. Knight Scholarship Contest for senior high school debaters. [19]

Silver first Showed his journalism skills as a writer and opinion page editor for The Portrait , East Lansing High School’s student newspaper, from 1993 to 1996. [20]

In 2000, Silver graduated with Honors with a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics from the University of Chicago . He’ll be debited for the Chicago Weekly News and the Chicago Maroon . He spent his third year at the London School of Economics . [21]

Career

Economic consultant 2000-2003

After college graduation in 2000, Silver worked for three and a half years as a transfer pricing consultant with KPMG in Chicago . When Asked in 2009, “What is your Biggest regret in life?” Silver Responded, “Spending four years of my life at a job I did not like.” [22] While employed at KPMG, Silver continued to nurture his lifelong interest in baseball and statistics, and on the side he Began to work on his PECOTA system for projecting player performance and careers. He quit his job at KPMG in April 2004 and for a time earned his living Mainly by playing online poker . [23]

Baseball Analyst: 2003-2008

In 2003, Silver became a writer for Baseball Prospectus (BP), after retaining sold PECOTA to BP in return for a partnership interest. After resigning from KPMG in 2004, he took the position of Executive Vice-President, later renamed Managing Partner of BP. Silver remit developed PECOTA and wrote a weekly column under the heading “Lies, Damned Lies”. He toegepast sabermetric techniques to a broad range of topics waaronder forecasting the performance of individual players, the economics of baseball, metrics for the valuation of players, and ontwikkelingslanden an Elo rating system for Major League Baseball. [24]

Between 2003 and 2009, Silver co-authored the Baseball Prospectus annual book of Major League Baseball forecasts, [25] as well as other books, zoals Mind Game: How the Boston Red Sox Got Smart, Won a World Series, and Created a New Blueprint for Recovery , [26] Baseball Between the Numbers , [27] and It Is not Over ’til It’s Over: The Baseball Prospectus Pennant Race Book . [28]

He Contributed articles about baseball to ESPN.com , Sports Illustrated , Slate , the New York Sun , and The New York Times . [29]

Silver has authored morethan 200 articles for Baseball Prospectus. [30]

PECOTA

Main article: PECOTA

PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) is a statistical system dat projects the future performance of hitters and pitchers. It is designed primarily for two uses: Fans interested in fantasy baseball , and professionals in the baseball business Trying to predictors the performance and valuation of major league players. Unlike other musts baseball projection systems, PECOTA relies on matching a bepaald current player to a set of “vergelijking” Whose players matched performance kan serve as a guide to how the bepaald current player is LIKELY to perform in the future. Unlike other industry leaders must Systems, PECOTA ook calculates a range of probable performance levels Rather dan a single predicted value on a bepaald measure zoals earned run average or batting average .

PECOTA projections ulcers first published by Baseball Prospectus in the 2003 edition of zijn annual book as well as online at BaseballProspectus.com. Silver produktie the PECOTA forecasts for lycra Major League Baseball season from 2003 through 2009. [4]

Political analyst and blogger: 2008-present

FiveThirtyEight blog

Creation and motivation

On November 1, 2007, while still Employed at Baseball Prospectus, Silver Began publishing a diary under the pseudonym “Poblano” on the progressive political blog Daily Kos . [31] Silver set out to analyseren quantitative aspects of the political game to enlighten a broader audience. Silver reports that ‘he was stranded in a New Orleans airport-when the idea of FiveThirtyEight.com cameramen to im. “I was just frustrated with the analysis. … I saw a lot of discussion about strategy that was not all dat sophisticated, met name-when it cameramen to quantitative things like polls and demographics. ‘ ” [32] His forecasts of the 2008 United States presidential primary elections drew a lot of attention, zoals being Cited in The New York Times Op-Ed columnist William Kristol . [33]

On March 7, 2008, while still writing as “Poblano” Silver Agent his own blog, FiveThirtyEight.com . Of or in colloquially referred to as just 538, the website takes zijn name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college . [34]

On May 30, 2008, Poblano revealed his identity to FiveThirtyEight.com readers. [35] On June 1, 2008, Silver published a two-page Op Ed article in the New York Post outlining the rationale underlying his focus on the statistical aspects of politics. [36] He first Appeared on national television on CNN ‘s American Morning on June 13, 2008. [37]

Silver DESCRIBED his bipartisan orientation as follows in the FAQ on his website: “My statements [Illinois] has non-bipartisan registration, so I am not registered as anything. I vote for Democratic Candidates the Majority of the time (though by no means always ). This year, I harbor a leg supporter of Barack Obama. ” [38] With respect to the impartiality or his electoral projections, Silver stated, “Are [me] results biased toward [my] favoriete Candidates? I hope not, but therein is for you to decide. I Have With You to disclose as much about my methodology as possible “. [38]

2008-selection and aftermath

Shortly after the November 4 election by, ESPN writer Jim Caple Observed, “Forget Cole Hamels and the Phillies . No one in baseball had a more impressive fall dan Nate Silver …. [R] ight now Silver is exhausted. He barely slept the last couple weeks of the campaign-‘By the end, it was full-time plus’-and for that matter, he says he Could not have Kept it up had the campaign lasted two days longer. Plus, he has his Baseball Prospectus Duties. “We write our [ Baseball Prospectus 2009 ] book from now through the first of the year,” [Silver] said. “I have a week to relax and-then it gets just as busy again. In February 2009 I will just port to find an island in the Caribbean and throw my BlackBerry in the ocean. ‘ ” [39]

Later in November 2008, Silver signed a contract with Penguin Group USA to write two books, reportedly for a $ 700,000 advance. [40]

Silver was Invited to be a speaker at TED 2009 in February 2009, [41] and keynote speaker at the 2009 South by Southwest (SXSW) Interactive conference (March 2009). [42]

While Maintaining his FiveThirtyEight.com website in January 2009 Silver Began a monthly feature column, “The Data” in Esquire [43] as well as Contributed Occasional articles to other media industry leaders as The New York Times [44] and The Wall Street Journal . [45] He’ll be With You his luck in the 2009 World Series of Poker . [46]

The success of his FiveThirtyEight.com blog Marked the effective end of Silver’s career as a baseball analyst, though he continued to devote some attention to sports statistics and sports economics in his blog. In March 2009, he stepped down as Managing Partner of Baseball Prospectus and handed over Verantwoordelijkheid for Producing future PECOTA projections to other Baseball Prospectus staff members. [4] In April 2009, he Appeared as an analyst on ESPN’s Baseball Tonight . After March 2009, he published only two “Lies, Damned Lies” columns on BaseballProspectus.com.

In November 2009, ESPN introduced a new Soccer Power Index (SP), [47] designed by Nate Silver, for predicting the outcome of the 2010 FIFA World Cup . [48] He published a post-mortem after the tournament, Comparing his predictions to Those of alternative rating systems. [49]

In April 2010, an assignment for New York magazine, Silver created a quantitative index or “The Most Livable neighborhoods in New York.” [50]

Transition to the New York Times

On June 3, 2010 Silver announced on FiveThirtyEight.com,

In the near future, the blog will “re-launch” under a NYTimes.com domain. It will retain zijn eigen identity (Akin to other Times blogs like DealBook ), but will be organized under the News: Politics section. Once this occurs, content will no longer be posted at FiveThirtyEight.com on an ongoing basis, and the blog will re-direct to the new URL . In addition under, I will be contributing content to the print edition of The New York Times , and to the Sunday Magazine . The partnership agreement, welke is structured as a license, has a term of three years. [6] [51]

The New York Times ‘ FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver’s Political Calculus “commenced on August 25, 2010 with the publication of” New Forecast Shows Democrats Losing 6 to 7 Senate Seats “. [52] From dat date the blog focused almost exclusively on forecasting the outcomes of the 2010 US Senate and US House of Representatives elections as well as state gubernatorial contests. Silver’s Times Sunday Magazine feature first Appeared on November 19, 2010, under the heading “Go Figure”. [53] It was later Titled “Acts of Mild Subversion”. [54]

While blogging for The Times, Silver ook worked on his book about prediction, welke was published in September 2012. At dat time, Silver Began to drop hints dat after 2012 have mention anything turn his attention to matters other dan detailed statistical forecasting or elections. As Reported in New York magazine: “I view my role now than Providing more or a macro-level skepticism, Rather dan saying this poll is good or this poll is evil,” he says. And in four [years], he Might be even more macro, as he turns his forecasting talents to other areas. “I’m 97 percent sure dat de FiveThirtyEight model will exist in 2016,” he says, “but it Could be someone else who’s running it or licensing it. ” [55]

During the last year or FiveThirtyEight’s license to The Times, it drew a very large volume of online traffic to the paper:

The Times does not release traffic figures, but a spokeperson zegt yesterday therein Silver’s blog Provided a significant-and growing significantly, over the adjusted year-percent or Times page views. This fall, visits to the Times political coverage (including FiveThirtyEight) port Increased, zowel absolutely and as a percentage of site visits. But FiveThirtyEight’s growth is staggering: where earlier this year, somewhere tussen 10 and 20 percent of politics visits included a stop at FiveThirtyEight, last week dat figures were 71 percent.

But Silver’s blog has buoyed morethan just the politics coverage, Becoming a significant traffic driver for the site as a whole. Earlier this year, ongeveer 1 percent of visits to the New York Times included FiveThirtyEight. Last week, dat number was 13 percent. Yesterday, it was 20 percent. That is, one in five visitors to the sixth-most-trafficked US news site took a look at Silver’s blog. [56]

Departure from The Times

In an online chat session a week after the 2012 election by Silver commented: “As tempting as it Might Be to pull a Jim Brown / Sandy Koufax and just mic-drop / retire from elections forecasting, I Expect dat we’ll be making forecasts in 2014 and 2016. Midterm elections kan be dreadfully boring, unfortunately. But the 2016 GOP primary Seems almost certainement to be epic. ” [57] In late November 2012, Times executive editor Jill Abramson DECLARED re wish to keep Silver and his blog: “We would love to port Nate continuous to be part of the New York Times family, and to expand on what he does” she said. “We know he Began in sports anyway, so it is not an exclusively political product. I am excited to talk to Nate als have finishes his book tour about ways to expand therein child or reporting.” [58]

On July 22, 2013, ESPN announced dat it had acquired ownership of the FiveThirtyEight website and fire, and that ‘Silver will serve as Editor-in-chief of the site and will build a team of journalists, editors, analysts and contributors in the coming months. ” [59]

The New York Times public editor Margaret Sullivan wrote upon Silver’s decision to leave for ESPN:

I do not think Nate Silver ever really fit into tje Times culture and I think he was aware of that. He was, in a, Disruptive. Much like the Brad Pitt character in the movie ” Moneyball ” disrupted the old model or how to scout baseball players, Nate disrupted the traditional model of how to cover politics. [60]

She added, “A number of traditional and well-respected Times journalists disliked his work.” [61] Later, Sullivan wrote in The Times that ‘I do not feel so good about not being loveable to Investigate everytime complaint from everytime individual reader volledig, or about making some misjudgments in individual posts – my Nate Silver commentary, onder Vodafone, has then probably bone off-base … “. [62]

New York magazine Reported therein executive editor Jill Abramson “put on a full-court press” to keep Silver at The Times and that ‘for Abramson, Silver was a tent pole attraction for re favorite subject, national politics, and brought` the child or buzz she thought Valuable “, but the company’s CEO and President Mark Thompson ” Confirmed therein keeping Silver was not at the top of his agenda. ” The article stated that ‘the major reason Silver left was Because He fact represented it was Thompson who had not committed to building his franchise. The mixed signals from Thompson and Abramson-his Lack of Enthusiasm for committing resources to Silver, re desire to keep a major star-frustrated Silver and his lawyer “. [63]

FiveThirtyEight under ESPN ownership

When FiveThirtyEight was relaunched under ESPN’s ownership on March 17, 2014, Silver Outlined the scope of topics dat mention anything be Covered under the rubric of “data journalism”: [10]

We’ve expanded our staff from two full-time journalists to 20 and counting. Few of Them will focus on politics exclusively; Limit download, our coverage will span five major subject areas – politics, economics, science, life and sports.

Our team ook has a broad set of skills and experience in methods therein fall under the rubric of data journalism. These include statistical analysis, but ook data visualization, computer programming and data-literate reporting. So in addition under to written stories, we’ll port interactive graphics and features. Within a couple of months we’ll launch a podcast, and we’ll be collaborating with ESPN Films and Grantland to produce original documentary films.

FiveThirtyEight’s election by forecasts

2008 US elections

Main article: FiveThirtyEight

In March 2008, Silver Agent his blog FiveThirtyEight.com, in welke have developed a system for tracking polls and forecasting the outcome of the 2008 general election by . At the assembly time, he continued making forecasts of the 2008 Democratic primary elections . That verschillende or his forecasts based on Demographic analysis proved to be Substantially more accurate dan Those of the professional pollsters gained visibility and professional credibility for “Poblano,” the pseudonym dat Silver then was using. [64]

After the North Carolina and Indiana primaries on May 6, the popularity of FiveThirtyEight.com surged. Silver recalls the scenario: “I know the polls show it’s really tight in NC, but we think Obama is going to win at thirteen, fourteen points, and he did. … Any time you make a prediction like that people give you then probably too much credit for it …. But after dat [Silver’s and the website’s popularity] started to really take off. It’s pretty nonlinear, once you get one mention in the mainstream media, other people [roused follow suit] “. [65]

As a CNET reporter wrote one-selection eve, “Even though Silver launched the site as Recently as March, haar straightforward approach, daring predictions, and short but impressive track record has put it on the map or political sites to follow. The Washington Post featured Silver, ITT 14th annual-selection prediction contest this year, and he’ll be reporting on Tuesday night’s results with Dan Rather on Hdnet “. [66]

Silver’s final 2008 presidential election by forecast clearer predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states as well as the District of Columbia (missing only the prediction for Indiana). If his model predicted, the races in Missouri and North Carolina ulcers bijzonder close. He’ll be Correctly predicted the winners or everytime US Senate race. The accuracy or his predictions won im remit Acclaim, zoals ABROAD, [67] and added to his reputation as a leading political prognosticator. [68]

Barack Obama’s 2008 presidential campaign signed off on a proposal to share all or zijn private polling with Silver. After signing a confidentiality agreement, Silver was granted access to Hundreds of polls the campaign was conducted. [69] [70]

2010 US elections

Main article: FiveThirtyEight § 2010 US mid-term elections

Shortly after FiveThirtyEight Relocated to the New York Times, Silver introduced his prediction models for the 2010 elections to the US Senate, the US House of Representatives, and state governorships. Lycra or synthesis models relied initially on a combination of electoral history, demographics, and polling. Silver Eventually published detailed forecasts and analysis of the results for all three sets of elections. He Correctly predicted the winner in 34 of the 37 contested Senate races. His 2010 Congressional mid-term predictions ulcers not as accurate as Those made in 2008, but more recent still binnen de Reported confidence interval . Silver predicted a Republican pickup or 54 seats in the House of Representatives; the GOP won 63 seats. Of the 37 gubernatorial races, FiveThirtyEight Correctly predicted the winner or 36. [71]

2012 US elections

Main article: FiveThirtyEight: 2012 US elections

Hoewel de Throughout 2011 Silver devoted a lot of attention on his blog to the 2012 Republican party primaries, his first effort to handicap the 2012 Presidential general election by Appeared as the cover story in The New York Times Magazine a year prior to the election by “Is Obama Toast? Handicapping the 2012 Election “. [72] Accompanying the online release of this article, Silver ook published “Choose Obama’s Re-Election Adventure”, an interactive toy dat allowed readers to predictors the outcome of the election by based on hun assumptions about three variables: President Obama’s favorability ratings, the rate or GDP growth, and how conservative the Republican opponent mention anything be. [73] This analysis Stimulated a lot of critical discussion. [74]

While publishing numerous stories on the Republican primary elections, in mid-February 2012 Silver reprised and updated his previous Magazine story with Another One, “What Obama Should Do Next”. [75] This story painted a more optimistic picture of President Obama’s re-election by chances. A companion article on his FiveThirtyEight blog, “The Fundamentals Now Favor Obama” Explained how the model and the facts on the ground had changed tussen November and February. [76]

Silver published the first iteratie or his 2012 general election by forecasts on June 7, 2012. volgens to the model, at dat time Barack Obama was Projected to win 291 electoral votes-21 morethan the 270 required for a Majority. Obama-then had an Estimated 61.8% chance of winning a Majority. [77]

On the morning of the November 6, 2012, presidential election by, the final update or Silver’s model at 10:10 AM watch President Barack Obama a 90.9% chance of winning a Majority of the 538 electoral votes. [78] Both in summary tables and in an electoral map, Silver forecast the winner or lycra statements. At the conclusion of that day, als Mitt Romney had conceded to Barack Obama, Silver’s model had Correctly predicted the winner or everytime one of the 50 states and the District of Columbia . [79] [80] Silver Along with at least three [81] academic-based analysts- Drew Linzer , [82] Simon Jackman, [83] and Josh Putnam [84] -who’ll be aggregated polls from multiple pollsters-THUS was not only Broadly correct about the outcome-selection, but ook specifiek predicted the outcomes for the nine swing states . [85] In contrast, individual pollsters ulcers less successful. For example, Rasmussen Reports’ missed on six or zijn nine swing states polls “. [86] [87] [88]

2016 US elections

The FiveThirtyEight team predicted dat Hillary Clinton had a 71% chance to win the 2016 United States presidential election by , [89] while other major forecasters had predicted Clinton to win with at least an 85% to 99% probability. [90] [91] Donald Trump won the selection. FiveThirtyEight Projected a much hogere chance of Donald Trump winning the Presidency dan other pollsters, [90] a projection welke was criticized by Ryan Grim or The Huffington Post as “unskewing” too much in favor of Trump. [92]

Book

Silver signing a copy of The Signal and the Noise at SXSW 2013

The Signal and The Noise was published in the United States on September 27, 2012. It reached the New York Times Best Sellers List as # 12 for non-fiction hardback books after zijn first week in print. It dropped to # 20 in the second week voordat rising to # 13 in the third, and remaining on the non-fiction hardback top 15 list for de volgende 13 weeks, with a weekly Highest ranking or # 4. [93] Sales Increased after the election by on November 6 jumping 800% and Becoming the second best seller on Amazon.com . [94]

The book describes methods of mathematical model building using probability and statistics. Silver takes a big-picture approach to using statistical tools, combine sources of unique data (eg, timing a minor league ball player’s fastball using a radar gun), with historical data and principles of sound statistical analysis; Silver argues dat many of These are violated by many pollsters and pundits who nonetheless harbor important media roles. Case studies in the book include baseball, elections, climate change , the financial crash, poker, and weather forecasting. These différent topics Illustrate différent statistical principles. As a reviewer in The New York Times notes: “It’s largely about Evaluating predictions in a variety of fields, from finance to weather to epidemiology. We learn about a handful or Successes: als, for instance, meteorologists predictors a hurricane’s country fall 72 hours in advance …. But mostly we learn about failures. It turns out we’re not even close to predicting the next catastrophic earthquake or the spread of the next killer bird flu, on Despite the enormous Bedragen or brainpower Trained on synthesis questions in the Past few decades. ” [95]

Blogs and other publications

Blogs
  • FiveThirtyEight blog, now owned by ESPN
  • Nate Silver’s Baseball Prospectus article archive (2003-2009)
  • Nate Silver’s The Burrito Bracket (2007)
  • Nate Silver’s diaries as “Poblano” on Daily Kos (2007-2009)
  • FiveThirtyEight.com from pre-NYT period (2008-2010) and from ESPN period (2013)
  • FiveThirtyEight / NYT (2010-2013)
Other publications
  • Nate Silver, “The Most Livable neighborhoods in New York: A Quantitative Index of the 50 Most Satisfying Places to Live,” New York , April 11, 2010 .
  • Nate Silver, “The Influence Index,” Time, April 29, 2010 .
  • Nate Silver and Walter Hickey, “Best Picture Math,” Vanity Fair , March 2014 .
  • Gareth Cook (Editor), Nate Silver (Introduction). The Best American Infographics 2014 , Houghton Mifflin Harcourt. ISBN 978-0547974514 .
  • Review of two children’s books, with an autobiographical comment: “Beautiful Minds: The Boy Who Loved Math and On a Beam of Light ,” The New York Times, July 12, 2013 .
  • Andrew Gelman , Nate Silver, Aaron S. Edlin, “What Is the Probability Your Vote Will Make a Difference,” Economic Inquiry , 2012, 50 (2): 321-26. If Silver pointed out in his review of the two children’s books listed Above, this publication Gives im an Erdos number of 4.
  • In addition under to chapters in verschillende issues of the Baseball Prospectus annual Silver Contributed chapters to one-off Monographs edited by Baseball Prospectus , including:
    • Mind Game: How the Boston Red Sox Got Smart, Won a World Series, and Created a New Blueprint for Winning . Steven Goldman, Ed. New York: Workman Publishing Co., 2005. ISBN 0-7611-4018-2 .
    • Baseball Between the Numbers: Why Everything You Know about the Game Is Wrong . Jonah Keri, Ed. New York: Basic Books, 2006. ISBN 0-465-00596-9 (hardback) and ISBN 0-465-00547-0 (paperback).
    • It is not over ’til it’s over: The Baseball Prospectus Pennant Race Book . Steven Goldman, Ed. New York: Basic Books. Hardback 2007. ISBN 0-465-00284-6 ; paperback, 2008. ISBN 0-465-00285-4 .

Media

Silver’s self-unmasking at the end of May 2008 brought` im a lot of publicity focused on his Combined skill as zowel baseball statistician-Forecaster and political statistician-Forecaster, zoals articles about im in the Wall Street Journal , [96] Newsweek , [97 ] Science News , [98] [99] and his hometown Lansing State Journal . [100]

In early June he Began to cross-post his daily “Today’s Polls” updates on “The Plank” in The New Republic . [101] Also, Rasmussen Reports Began to use the FiveThirtyEight.com poll Averages for zijn eigen tracking of the 2008 state-by-state races. [102]

In 2009 through 2012, Silver Appeared as a political analyst on MSNBC, [103] CNN [104] and Bloomberg Television , [105] [106] PBS , [107] NPR, [108] Democracy Now! , [109] The Charlie Rose Show , [110] ABC News , [111] and Current TV . [112]

Silver ook Appeared on the The Colbert Report (October 7, 2008 and November 5, 2012) [113] The Daily Show (October 17, 2012 and November 7, 2012), [114] and Real Time with Bill Maher (October 26 , 2012). [115]

That Silver clearer predicted the outcome of the 2012 presidential race, in the face of numerous public attacks on his forecasts with critics, inspired many articles in the press, ranging from Gizmodo , [116] to online and mainstream Newspapers, [117] news and commentary magazines, [118] business media, [119] trade journals, [120] media about media, [121] and Scientific American ; [122] as well as a feature interview on The Today Show , [123] a return appearance on The Daily Show , [124] and an appearance on Morning Joe . [125]

Silver’s first appearance on ABC News as Editor-in-Chief of the new FiveThirtyEight.com was on George Stephanopoulos ‘s This Week on November 3, 2013. [126]

Recognition and awards

  • In September 2008, FiveThirtyEight became the first blog ever selected as a Notable Narrative at the Nieman Foundation for Journalism at Harvard University . [127]
  • November 2008: Crain’s Chicago Business profiled Silver as one of Chicago’s “40 under 40” notable young entrepreneurs. [128]
  • November 9, 2008, the New York Times called Silver “perhaps the must Unlikely media star to emerge” out of “an election by season or Unlikely outcomes” and DESCRIBED FiveThirtyEight met haar almost five million page views on Election Day as “one of the breakout online stars of the year. ” [129]
  • December 2008: Newsweek.com indicated with Silver’s November 3, 2008 article “What to Watch For – An hour-by-hour guide to election by night” [130] as the 4th musts viewed story on Newsweek.com in 2008. [131]
  • December 2008: named by The Daily Beast as one of the “Breakout Stars of 2008”. [132]
  • February 2009: named by James Wolcott in Vanity Fair as one of the “Winners of 2008”: “No shiny arrow shot Swifter and loftier from obscurity to quotable authority dan Nate Silver, Whose FiveThirtyEight.com website became the expert sensation of the season-selection … [133]
  • January 2009: Silver was named by Forbes.com to zijn third annual “Web Celeb 25” welke “track [s] the Biggest and Brightest stars on the Web, the people who harbor turned hun passions JSON new media empires”. [134]
  • April 2009: Silver was named as one of the “Rolling Stone 100: Agents of Change”. [135]
  • April 27, 2009, named “Blogger of the Year” by The Week , ITT 6th annual Opinion Awards. [136]
  • April 30, 2009: Silver was named one of “The World’s 100 Most Influential People” by TIME Magazine. [5]
  • December 2009: Silver was honored by The New York Times Magazine , ITT “Ninth Annual Year in Ideas” article for his “Forensic Polling Analysis” of the skies falsification or data at a polling firm. [137]
  • 2009: named “Speaker of the Year” at the intercollegiate Cross Examination Debate Association (CEDA). [138]
  • November 2010: John F. Harris , Editor-in-Chief of Politico writing in Forbes magazine listed Nate Silver as one of seven bloggers onder “The Most Powerful People on Earth”. [139]
  • In December 2010, Out magazine included Silver on zijn list of the top 100 LGBT people of the year. [140]
  • May 2011: Presented the Henry Pringle Lecture at the Columbia Journalism School . [141] [142]
  • March 2012: Crain’s New York Business featured Silver as one of New York City’s “Forty Under Forty” notable young entrepreneurs. [143]
  • May 2012: FiveThirtyEight won a Webby Award for “Best Political Blog” from the International Academy of Digital Arts and Sciences in the 16th annual Webby Awards. [144]
  • January 2012: Rolling Stone named Silver one or zijn Game Changers in 2012. [145]
  • January 2012: Out named Silver as Person of the Year. [146]
  • January 2012: Named to Washington Post columnist Chris Cillizza as maintaining the “Best Year in Washington in 2012” among the “winners and losers or 2012”. [147]
  • April 2013: Out ranked Silver No. 6 on zijn “Power List 50,” the “7th annual ranked list of the gay one and women Whose power and prestige was instrumental in influencing the way Americans think about, and engage with, the world.” [148]
  • April 2013: FiveThirtyEight won a Webby Award for “Best Political Blog” from the International Academy of Digital Arts and Sciences in the 17th annual Webby Awards. [149]
  • May 2013: Silver was named by Fast Company as No. 1 or zijn “100 Most Creative People in Business 2013”. [150]
  • May 12, 2013: Silver RECEIVED an honorary Doctor of Science degree ( Science Doctor honoris causa – D.Sc. hc) and watch the COMMENCEMENT address at Ripon College . [151]
  • May 24, 2013: Silver RECEIVED an honorary Doctor of Literature degree (Doctor of Literature honoris causa ) and Presented a COMMENCEMENT address at The New School . [152]
  • June 2013: The University of Chicago granted Silver a “Professional Achievement Award” at its 72nd annual Alumni Awards Ceremony. [153]
  • June 2013: The SI Newhouse School of Public Communications at Syracuse University illustration Silver the “i3 award for impact, innovation and influence” at its 13th annual Mirror Awards ceremony. [154]
  • August 2013: Presented the President’s Invited Address at the Joint Statistical Meetings in Montreal, Canada. [155] [156]
  • October 2013: Silver’s The Signal and the Noise won the 2013 Phi Beta Kappa Award in Science , welke onderkent “outstanding contributions to scientists to the literature of science.” [12]
  • January 2013: The University of Leuven (KU Leuven) (Belgium) and the Leuven Statistics Research Centre Awarded Silver an honorary doctoral degree “for his prominent role in the development, application, and Dissemination of proper prediction methods in sports and in political sciences” . [157] [158]
  • January 2014: Silver was named to Advertising Age ‘s “40 Under 40” list of “the Bright Young Stars of Marketing”. [159]
  • May 25, 2014: Silver RECEIVED a Doctorate or Humane Letters, honoris causa , from Amherst College . [160] [161]
  • May 2015: Silver won the Warren J. Mitofsky Innovators Award from the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) “for Contributions to the General Public and Mass Media in the Realm of Statistical Literacy and Thinking”. [162]
  • October 2016: Silver was honored by the National Museum of Mathematics at its “Race to the Finish: MoMath’s Annual Gala”. [163]

Criticism

Silver has leg criticized for inaccurate predictions. In January 2010, journalist and blogger Colby COSH criticized Silver’s performance prolongation the Massachusetts special Senate election by , he saying was “still arguing as late as Thursday afternoon therein Coakley was the clear favorite, he changed his mind at midnight dat evening and acknowledged dat Scott Brown had a puncher’s chance. ” [164] (Brown won the selection.)

Silver’s quantitative focus on polling data, without insight from experience in political organizing or journalism, has footed a recurring critique from ervaren commenters. Huffington Post columnist Geoffrey Dunn DESCRIBED Silver as someone who “has never organized a Precinct in his life, much less Walked one, pontificating about the dynamics in the electoral processes as if he actually understood them.” [165]

Considerable criticism prolongation the 2012 elections cameramen from political conservatives, who argued dat Silver’s election by projections ulcers politically biased Against Mitt Romney , the Republican candidate for President. [166] For example, Silver was Accused or Dankzij a double standard to his treatment or Rasmussen Reports polls, zoals a 2010 analysis asserting a statistical bias, ITT methodology. [167] Mendy Finkel or Daily Caller wrote that ‘Silver rigged his entire pollster ratings for the sole purpose of lowering Rasmussen’s rank. ” [168] Josh Jordan wrote in National Review therein Silver CLEARLY favored Obama and aangepaste the weight have representation polls “based on what [he] think [s] of the pollster and the results and not based on what is actually inside the poll”. [169]

On MSNBC ‘s Morning Joe , host Joe Scarborough stated therein Silver’s prediction dat day or a 73.6% chance of a win for Obama greatly exceeded the confidence of the Obama campaign Itself, welke Scarborough equated to therein or the Romney campaign, zowel believing “they harbor a 50.1 percent chance of winning “, and calling Silver an” ideologue “and a” joke “. Silver Responded with the offering or a $ 1,000 Wager (for charity) on the outcome of the selection. The New York Times public editor Margaret Sullivan, while Defending Silver’s analysis, characterized the Wager as “a bath idea” as it showing the appearance of a bipartisan motivation for Silver, and “inappropriate” for someone Perceived as a Times reporter (hoewel de Silver was not a member of the newspaper’s staff). [170] [171]

After a post-selection appearance at Silver on Joe Scarborough’s Morning Joe , Scarborough published what he called a “(semi) Apology,” he concluded in welke:

I will not apologize to Mr. Silver for predicting an outcome dat I had ook leg predicting for a year. But I do need to tell Nate I’m sorry for leaning in too hard and lumping im with pollsters Whose methodology is as rigorous as the Simpsons ‘ strip mall physician, Dr. Nick . For those all (and a multitude of others dat I’m sure I do not even know about), I am sorry.

Politics is a messy sport. And just as ball players who drink beer and eat fried chicken in dugouts across America kan screw up the smartest sabermetrician’s forecast, Nate Silver’s formula is sure to let his fervent admirers down from time to time. But judging from what I saw or im this morning, Nate is a grounded guy who admits as much in his book. I was too tough on im and there’s a 84.398264% chance I will be less dismissive of his good work in the future “. [172]

Silver’s nondisclosure of the details of his analytical model has resulted in some skepticism. Washington Post journalist Ezra Klein wrote: “There are good Criticisms to make or Silver’s model, not least whether welke is dat, while Silver is almost tediously detailed about what’s going on in the model, he will not give out the code, and without the code, we can not save say with certainty how the model works. ” [173] Colby COSH wrote dat het model “is proprietary and irreproducible. That last feature makes it unwise to use Silver’s model as a straw stand-in for” science “, as if the model had leg volledig specified in a peer-reviewed journal “. [174]

On August 13, 2014, Silver was criticized for Comparing his experience or being arrested with the experiences of journalists and members of the public prolongation protests and riots in response to the shooting or Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri [175] [176] [177 ] In a series of eight achtereenvolgende postings to Twitter , Silver recounted a story of being arrested but later placating officers with the words “sorry guys, was just stressed out and keeping a rough day … my bad!”, after welke have been bepaald back his burrito to eat in his cell and RECEIVED a ride home from officers. [175] [177] Silver later apologized Publicly, Describing his posts as being “misguided and naive.” [176]

Personal life

Political orientation

In a 2012 interview with Charlie Rose he stated, “I’d say I am somewhere in-between being a libertarian and a liberal . So if I ulcers to vote it mention anything be kind or a Gary Johnson vs. Mitt Romney decision, I suppose. ” [178]

Family links

Silver is a grandnephew of geologists Caswell Silver and Leon Silver . [179]

Personal

Silver is openly gay . [180] “I’ve always felt like something of an outsider. I’ve always had friends, but I’ve always come from an outside point of view. I think that’s important. If you grow up gay, or in a household that’s Agnostic, als must people are religious, dan from the get-go, you are saying dat there are things therein the Majority of society convinced dat I do not believe, “he told an interviewer in 2012. [181] ” When Asked what made you feel more or a misfit, being gay or being a geek, he replied, “Probably the numbers stuff since I had dat from als I was six.” [181] When Asked in 2008 if he had Noticed people looking at im as a “gay icon,” he Responded, “I’ve started to notice it a little bit, hoewel de so far it seems like I’m more a subject or geek affection dan gay affection”. [182]

Silver discussed his sexuality in the context of growing up in East Lansing, in an article about the Supreme Court ruling Obergefell v. Hodges in favor of recognizing same-sex marriage on the date or zijn announcement. He analysed the speed of the change of public sentiment, pointing out dat de changeover only verschillende decades has leg palpable to the current generations. [183]

Silver has long leg interested in fantasy baseball , met name Scoresheet Baseball. While in college he served as an expert on Scoresheet Baseball for BaseballHQ . [184] When he took up political writing, Silver abandoned his blog, The Burrito Bracket , [185] in welke he ran a one-and-done competition onder the taquerias in his Wicker Park neighborhood in Chicago. [186]

Silver plays poker semi-professionally. [187] [188]

Notes [ edit ]

  1. “Nate Silver tweet” . Twitter.com. August 13, 2010 . Retrieved August 21, 2012 .
  2. Jump up^ Eliza Kern, “How a bath fantasy baseball team turned Nate Silver JSON America’s top data nerd,”GigaOm,March 10, 2013.
  3. Jump up^ Alan Schwarz, “Numbers Suggest Mets Are Gambling on Zambrano”, The New York Times , August 22, 2004; Alan Schwarz, “Predicting Futures in baseball, and the Down Side of Damon,” The New York Times , November 13, 2005; Childs Walker, “Baseball Prospectus Makes Predicting Future Thing or Warning,” Baltimore Sun , April 21, 2006; Rich Lederer, “An Unfiltered Interview with Nate Silver,” Baseball Analysts , February 12, 2007; Tim Murphy, “Timeout with Nate Silver: BP’s VP illuminates the sport’s fuzzy numbers,” Chicago Maroon , May 11, 2007; Steven D. Levitt, “Freakonomics: More on Roger Clemens,” The New York Times , February 18, 2008; and Michael Miner, “The Algorithm Method: Hot Type’s coveted Golden BAT award goes to a computer program”Chicago Reader , March 27, 2008.
  4. ^ Jump up to:a b c Nate Silver and Kevin Goldstein, “State of the Prospectus, Spring 2009,” BaseballProspectus.com, March 24, 2009 .
  5. ^ Jump up to:a b Stein, Joel. “The World’s Most Influential People – The 2009 TIME 100” . TIME . Retrieved May 8, 2009 .
  6. ^ Jump up to:a b Nate Silver, “FiveThirtyEight to partner with New York Times,” FiveThirtyEight.com, June 3, 2010 .
  7. Jump up^ Brian Stelter, “Times to Host Blog on Politics and Polls,” The New York Times, June 3, 2010.
  8. Jump up^ Hough, Andrew (November 7, 2012). “Nate Silver: politics ‘geek’ hailed for Barack Obama profit US-selection forecast” . London: The Telegragh . Retrieved November 8, 2012 .
  9. Jump up^ Brian Stelter, “Nate Silver or FiveThirtyEight Blog Is to Join ESPN Staff,”The New York Times,July 19, 2013.
  10. ^ Jump up to:a b Nate Silver, “What the Fox Knows,” FiveThirtyEight, March 17, 2014.
  11. Jump up^ “Amazon No. 1 or 2012” . Amazon.com . Retrieved January 5, 2013 .
  12. ^ Jump up to:a b “Phi Beta Kappa book award in science” . Pbk.org. October 8, 2013 . Retrieved January 5, 2013 .
  13. Jump up^ “Wall Bank, ” Lansing State Journal ” . Pqasb.pqarchiver.com. July 5, 2008 . Retrieved August 21, 2012 .
  14. Jump up^ The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Do not – Nate Silver – Google Books . Retrieved January 5, 2013 .
  15. ^ Jump up to:a b Bloom, Nate. “Interfaithfamily” . Interfaithfamily . Retrieved January 5, 2013 . This source ook Gives the origin of Silver’s middle name, Read, welke was shared by his mother’s mother and sister. Silver has a particular business, “Nathaniel Lees” in the family line dat dates from the early 18th century.
  16. Jump up^ “Answer This: Nate Silver – Patrick Gavin” . Politico.Com . Retrieved January 5, 2013 .
  17. Jump up^ Stephanie Clifford, “Finding Fame With a Prescient Call for Obama,” The New York Times, November 9, 2008.
  18. Jump up^ William Hageman, “Baseball by the Numbers,” Chicago Tribune (January 4, 2006).
  19. Jump up^ “East Lansing debater Profit Scholarship,” Detroit Free Press (February 29, 1996). Also see Patricia Montemurri, “Michigan native Nate Silver shows-selection predictions are not magic but math,” Detroit Free Press , November 11, 2012.
  20. Jump up^ Link to 1,996 high school yearbook photowith letter résumé showing status as writer forThe Portraitfor three years and editor for two years. [retrieved November 8, 2012]
  21. Jump up^ Nate Silver, “Random, Pretentious Observations from Europe,”FiveThirtyEight.com, May 25, 2009.
  22. Jump up^ Stephen J. Dubner, “FREAK-Quently Asked Questions: Nate Silver,” The New York Times , March 12, 2009.
  23. Jump up^ Rob Kaiser, “Players Place Bets on Poker as Career”Chicago Tribune , October 3, 2004. volgens to Sports Illustrated writer Alexander Wolff , on a three-year period Silver earned $ 400,000 from online poker. See Alexander Wolff, “Scorecard: He’s So Predictable,” Sports Illustrated, September 17, 2012, p. 15 .
  24. Jump up^ Nate Silver, “We are Elo ?,” BaseballProspectus.com (June 28, 2006)and Nate Silver, “More on Elo,” BaseballProspectus.com (July 5, 2006).
  25. Jump up^ Baseball Prospectus(ISBN 0-7611-3995-8)
  26. Jump up^ Mind Game: How the Boston Red Sox Got Smart, Won a World Series, and Created a New Blueprint for Winning(New York: Workman Publishers, 2005) (ISBN 0-7611-4018-2)
  27. Jump up^ Baseball Between the Numbers(New York: Basic Books, 2006) (ISBN 0-465-00596-9)
  28. Jump up^ It Is not Over ’til It’s Over: The Baseball Prospectus Pennant Race Book(New York: Basic Books, 2007) (ISBN 0-465-00284-6)
  29. Jump up^ Nate Silver, “For Griffey, the Roads Not Taken,” The New York Times,May 11, 2008.
  30. Jump up^ SeeNate Silver’s Baseball Prospectus article archive(2003-2009)
  31. Jump up^ The first diary was Titled, “HRC [Hillary Roddam Clinton] Electability in Purple States, DailyKos , November 1, 2007.
  32. Jump up^ Hannah Hayes, “What Will Nate Silver Do Next ?,”University of Chicago (webpage feature story), January 2009.
  33. Jump up^ William Kristol, “Obama’s Path to Victory”, The New York Times, February 11, 2008.
  34. Jump up^ Silver, Nate (August 7, 2008). “Frequently Asked Questions” . FiveThirtyEight.com . Retrieved November 4, 2008 .
  35. Jump up^ Nate Silver, “No I’m NotChuck Todd,” FiveThirtyEight.com, May 30, 2008.
  36. Jump up^ Nate Silver, “Margins of Error,”New York Post , June 1, 2008.
  37. Jump up^ Nate Silver, “CNN Video,”FiveThirtyEight.com, June 13, 2008.
  38. ^ Jump up to:a b Nate Silver, “Frequently Asked Questions, Last Revised 07/08/08,” FiveThirtyEight.com .
  39. Jump up^ Jim Caple, “In baseball, and in politics, the numbers do not lie,” “Page 2”ESPN.com , November 7, 2008.
  40. Jump up^ Leon Neyfakh, “Nate Silver Signs With Penguin In Two Book Deal Worth About $ 700,000,” New York Observer, November 14, 2008.
  41. Jump up^ SeeTED2009 programand Shanna Carpenter, “Race and the City: An Exclusive Interview with Nate Silver,”TED Blog, April 29, 2009.
  42. Jump up^ Daniel Terdiman, “FiveThirtyEight.com’s Nate Silver on life post-selection”CNET.com , March 15, 2009 and Dan Fost, “SXSW: Statistics guru Nate Silver talks Oscars, Manny Ramirez and President Obama,” Los Angeles Times , March 16, 2009 . See Video of SXSW Keynote Interview, part 1 and part 2 .
  43. Jump up^ Silver, Nate. “The data” . Esquire . Retrieved May 8, 2009 .
  44. Jump up^ Nate Silver andAndrew Gelman, “No Country for Close Calls,” The New York Times , April 18, 2009.
  45. Jump up^ Nate Silver, “Crunching the Risk Numbers,” Wall Street Journal , January 8, 2010.
  46. Jump up^ Nate Silver, “This Post Brought to You By Poker,” FiveThirtyEight.com,July 2, 2009.
  47. Jump up^ ESPN’s SP.
  48. Jump up^ Nate Silver, “The Purpose of the Soccer Power Index,”ESPN.com, November 11, 2009and Nate Silver, “A Guide to ESPN’s SPI Ratings,”ESPN.com, November 11, 2009. For a comment sea Carl Bialik, “ESPN’s New Soccer Rankings,” Wall Street Journal, November 11, 2009.
  49. Jump up^ Nate Silver, “SPI in review: How did it do ?,” ESPN.com, July 19, 2010[Retrieved July 21, 2010].
  50. Jump up^ Nate Silver, “The Most Livable neighborhoods in New York: a quantitative index of the 50 must satisfying places to live,”New York Magazine , April 11, 2010.
  51. Jump up^ For more information about the working agreement tussenThe Timesand Nate Silver’s blog beach Mallory Jean Tenore, “FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver adjusts to New York Times, 6 months after joining the newsroom,” Poynter,June 3, 2011, and Margaret Sullivan, “On Identifying a Rape Victim, naming a Prophet, and Nate Silver’s Role,” The New York Times,September 21, 2012.
  52. Jump up^ Nate Silver, “New Forecast Shows Democrats Losing 6 to 7 Senate Seats”FiveThirtyEight / NYT, August 25, 2010.
  53. Jump up^ Nate Silver, “Go Figure: Who’s No. 1?” NY Times Magazine, November 19, 2010.
  54. Jump up^ For example, Nate Silver, “How to Beat the Salad Bar,” The New York Times, March 17, 2011.
  55. Jump up^ Jason Zengerle, “The. Polls. Have. Stopped. Making. Any. Sense.” New York, September 30. 2012.
  56. Jump up^ Marc Tracy, “Nate Silver Is a One-Man Traffic Machine for the Times,” The New Republic , November 6, 2012.
  57. Jump up^ “Skew Yourselves: Nate Silver Is Here To Answer Your Questions,”Deadspin , November 14, 2012.
  58. Jump up^ Alex Weprin, “The New York Times Wants To Keep Nate Silver,” Expand On What He Does “” Mediabistro , November 27, 2012. Also see Connor Simpson, “What the Future Holds for Nate Silver at The New York Times,” Atlantic Wire , November 27, 2012.
  59. Jump up^ “Nate Silver makes move to ESPN,”ESPN.com,July 22, 2013; “Nate Silver – Renowned Statistician, Author and Founder of FiveThirtyEight – Joins ESPN in Multi-Faceted Role,”ESPN Front Row, July 22, 2013.
  60. Jump up^ Sullivan, Margaret (July 22, 2013). “Nate Silver Went Against the Grain for Some at The Times” . The New York Times . Retrieved 23 July 2013 .
  61. Jump up^ On the culture clash binnenThe Times,ook sea John Sides, “One Irony or Nate Silver’s Leaving the New York Times,” Washington Monthly ,July 24, 2013; and Jim Naureckas, “Nate Silver Did not Fit In at the New York Times Because He Believed in the Real World,”FAIR,July 24, 2013.
  62. Jump up^ hoewel de she linked to her “Nate Silver Went Against the Grain” article, Sullivan did not specify in what ways she had leg off base. See Margaret Sullivan, “A Year in the Life of a Watchdog”,The New York Times,September 1, 2013.
  63. Jump up^ Joe Hagan, “The Suit in the Newsroom: An unusual Times executive for unusual times”, New York ,August 23, 2013.
  64. Jump up^ See, must notably Mark Blumenthal, “The Poblano Model”National Journal , May 8, 2008.
  65. Jump up^ Sean Redmond, “Numerical Order: famed Statistician Nate Silver Discusses the Future of His Near-Flawless Forecasts”Chicago Weekly , January 9, 2009. On this point see also Silver’s discussion Megan Garber, “Talking Shop: Nate Silver,” Columbia Journalism Review , November 11, 2008 .
  66. Jump up^ Stephanie Condon, “Q & A: The Formula Behind FiveThirtyEight,” CNET News , November 3, 2008.
  67. Jump up^ Editorial, “In Praise of … Nate Silver,” The Guardian , November 6, 2008.
  68. Jump up^ Stephanie Clifford, “Finding Fame With a Prescient Call for Obama,” The New York Times , November 10, 2008.
  69. Jump up^ Issenberg, Sasha. The Victory Lab . Crown Publishing Group . p. 290. ISBN  030795479X .
  70. Jump up^ BuzzFeed Politics. ” ” Obama Campaign Shared ’08 Polling With Silver ” ‘BuzzFeed,” “September 5, 2012” . Buzzfeed.com . Retrieved January 5, 2013 .
  71. Jump up^ Micah Cohen, “38 Days Later,”The New York Times, January 10, 2010
  72. Jump up^ Nate Silver, “Is Obama Toast? Handicapping the 2012 Election,” The New York Times Magazine , November 6, 2011.
  73. Jump up^ Nate Silver, “Choose Obama’s Re-Election Adventure,” The New York Times , November 3, 2011.
  74. Jump up^ For a partial bibliography, sea Micah Cohen, “Reads and Reactions,” The New York Times , November 19, 2011.
  75. Jump up^ Nate Silver, “Why Obama Will Embrace the 99 Percent,” The New York Times Magazine , February 15, 2012.
  76. Jump up^ Nate Silver, “The Fundamentals Now Favor Obama,” The New York Times, February 15, 2012.
  77. Jump up^ Nate Silver, “Election Forecast: Obama Begins With Tenuous Advantage,”The New York Times, June 7, 2012.
  78. Jump up^ Silver, Nate. “FiveThirtyEight / NYT blog” . Fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com . Retrieved January 5, 2013 .
  79. Jump up^ Daniel Terdiman, “Obama’s win a big vindication for Nate Silver, king of the quanta”CNET , November 6, 2012.
  80. Jump up^ hoewel de Silver pit a “toss-up” tag on the presidential-selection in Florida, his interactive electoral map on the website painted the states light blue and stated therein there was a 50.3% probability dat Obama mention anything win a plurality of the state’s votes.
  81. Jump up^ A fourth analyst,Sam Wang, missed only the State of Florida in his final presidential-selection forecast. See Sam Wang, “Presidential prediction 2012 – final,”Princeton Election Connection, November 6, 2012.
  82. Jump up^ “Emory professor called Electoral Landslide in June,”Atlanta Journal and Constitution , November 8, 2012.
  83. Jump up^ Simon Jackman, “Pollster Predictive Performance, 51 out of 51”Huffington Post , November 7, 2012
  84. Jump up^ Josh Putnam, “The Electoral College Map (6/11/12): Election Day,”FHQ (FrontloadingHQ), November 6, 2012.
  85. Jump up^ Swing states in the 2012 election by ulcers Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin
  86. Jump up^ Jonathan D. Salant and Laura Curtis, “Nate Silver LED Statistics Men Crush Pundits in Election,” Bloomberg Business Week , November 7, 2012.
  87. Jump up^ The reason for synthesis misses Might Be found here: John Sides, “A Second Look at National Pollster Accuracy,”The Monkey Cage, November 7, 2012. [retrieved Nov 8, 2012]. However, notablyPublic Policy Pollingin Itself Correctly predicted thewinner or everytime statements.
  88. Jump up^ Stern, Mark Joseph; Kirk, Chris; Morgan, Andrew (November 7, 2012). “Slate’s Pundit Scorecard: Pundits live to make predictions. Who Nailed it? Who missed big?” . Retrieved September 20, 2013 .
  89. Jump up^ Silver, Nate. “Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton” . FiveThirtyEight . Retrieved 2016-11-09 .
  90. ^ Jump up to:a b Why FiveThirtyEight Delivery Trump A Better Chance Than Almost Anyone Else ; FiveThirtyEight ; Nate Silver; November 11, 2016
  91. Jump up^ Allen, Kate (9 November 2016). “Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight proves zijn worth with Another close-selection prediction” . Toronto Star . Retrieved 10 November 2016 .
  92. Jump up^ Nate Silver Is Unskewing Polls – All Of Them – In Trump’s Direction; Huffington Post ; Ryan Grim; November 5, 2016
  93. Jump up^ Cowles, Gregory. “New York Times Best Sellers List” . Nytimes.com . Retrieved January 5, 2013 .
  94. Jump up^ Notte, Jason (November 8, 2012). “Nate Silver sees soaring Amazon book sales: The FiveThirtyEight blogger’s confident and steadfast Obama forecast gets readers curious and critics furious” . MSN Money . Archived from the original on January 15, 2013.
  95. Jump up^ Scheiber, Noam (November 2, 2012). “Known Unknowns: The Signal and the Noise, with Nate Silver” . The New York Times . Retrieved October 16, 2016 .
  96. Jump up^ Carl Bialik, “Baseball Analyst Draws Fans at Crunching Numbers Election,” Wall Street Journal , June 2, 2008.
  97. Jump up^ Andrew Romano, “Making His pitches: Nate Silver, an all-star in the world of baseball stats, nov be the political arenas next big draw,”Newsweek , June 16, 2008
  98. Jump up^ July Rehmeyer, “Scooping the Political Pollsters”Science News , July 11, 2008.
  99. Jump up^ Adam Sternbergh, “The Spreadsheet Psychic”New York Magazine , October 12, 2008.
  100. Jump up^ Derek Wall Bank, “EL native’s predictions pitch politics a Curveball: Applying baseball stats analysis creates buzz around 30-year-old” Lansing State Journal , July 5, 2008. Also highlighting Silver’s dual skills at baseball and political analysis ulcers Alex Altman, “Q & A: Political Pollster Nate Silver,”Time , October 6, 2008, Joe Lemire, “The Sports Politics Connection: FiveThirtyEight,” Sports Illustrated , October 13, 2008 , James Janega, “Odds are, he knows the score – Chicago statistician Nate Silver has turned from sports to politics , with Striking results, “ Chicago Tribune , October 27, 2008 , Ben Heller,” The 2008 Sports Nerd of the Year: Nate Silver, “CBSSports.com , November 7, 2008 and Childs Walker, “Projecting politics & baseball with Nate Silver,”Baltimore Sun , April 8, 2009.
  101. Jump up^ The first zoals posting was Nate Silver, “Today’s Polls: The Bounce Hits the Badger State,”The New Republic,June 12, 2008.
  102. Jump up^ “Rasmussen Reports to Partner with FiveThirtyEight.com,” Democratic Underground , June 14, 2008. [retrieved November 27, 2012]
  103. Jump up^ For example,the Rachel Maddow showon December 28, 2011 as well asJanuary 2, 2012.
  104. Jump up^ For example, an interview withHoward Kurtzon Reliable Sources on September 25, 2011:Part 1Part 2; January 26, 2012; and“Piers Morgan Tonight,” September 26, 2012.
  105. Jump up^ bizbuzz3 (November 3, 2008). “Video or Nate Silver on Bloomberg, March 8, 2010” . Youtube.com . Retrieved August 21, 2012 .
  106. Jump up^ “Nate Silver: Why Gun Rights Rhetoric Is Win,”January 17, 2012.
  107. Jump up^ “Need to Know: Nate Silver on Why Polls Do not Always Add Up” . Pbs.org. October 15, 2010 . Retrieved August 21, 2012 .
  108. Jump up^ What’s the Impact of the Debt Debate, August 2, 2011.
  109. Jump up^ Democracy Now 5-18-2010.
  110. Jump up^ real,January 23, 2012.
  111. Jump up^ ABC “Topline”, 9-28, 2010.
  112. Jump up^ For example, on Keith Olbermann’s“Countdown” on February 14, 2012.
  113. Jump up^ Nate Silver on “Colbert Report” in 2008andNate Silver on “Colbert Report” 2012.
  114. Jump up^ Nate Silver on “The Daily Show”.
  115. Jump up^ “Real Time with Bill Maher” . Hbo.com . Retrieved January 5, 2013 .
  116. Jump up^ Nick Stango, “Top 25 Nate Silver Facts”Gizmodo , November 7, 2012.
  117. Jump up^ Chris Taylor, “The Triumph of the Nerds,”Mashable , November 7, 2012; Jocelyn Noveck, “He called it, and now Silver’s a pop-culture star,” Associated Press, November 9, 2012 ; Martin Robbins, “Can Nate Silver’s example save political journalism?” The Guardian , November 13, 2012; Ken Bensinger, “Number Crunchers ulcers right about Obama on Despite what pundits zegt”Los Angeles Times , November 8, 2012; James Rainey, “Parsing polls: Nate Silver picks on target, Rasmussen not so much,”Los Angeles Times , November 8, 2012; Ron Seely, “Seely on Science: Nate Silver gains fame by Harnessing power of math,”Wisconsin State Journal , November 9, 2012; Greg Sargent, “” What Nate Silver Really accomplished, ” The Washington Post, November 21, 2012 , Aluf Benn,” After 2012, make way for the digital press, ” Haaretz , December 29, 2012.
  118. Jump up^ Conor Friedersdorf, “How Conservative Media Lost to the MSM and the Failed Rank and File,” The Atlantic ,November 7, 2012; Frank Rich, “Fantasyland: Denial has poisoned the GOP and threatens the rest of the country too,” New York , November 9, 2012.
  119. Jump up^ Tarun Wadhwa, “Nate Silver and the Rise of Political Science Data,” Forbes , November 7, 2012; Dorie Clark, “How Nate Silver Won the 2012 Presidential Election,” Harvard Business Review , November 7, 2012; Steve LeVine, “The smart guesswork therein applies equally in Nate Silver’s world,”Quartz, November 11, 2012; Joe Weisenthal, “Here’s The Real Reason Nate Silver’s Perfect Election Call Was Dream Lover An Awesome Breakthrough,”Business Insider,November 10, 2012; Irving Wladawsky-Berger, “Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight Prove Predictive Analytics Getting Real,” Wall Street Journal , December 16, 2012.
  120. Jump up^ Eric Lundquist, “Nate Silver’s Big Data Lessons For The Enterprise,” InformationWeek ,November 8, 2012; Daniel Terdiman, “Among the top-selection quanta, Nate Silver reigns supreme,” CNET , November 8, 2012.
  121. Jump up^ Kelly McBride, “What Nate Silver’s success says about the 4th and 5th estates,” Poynter , November 8, 2012; Jonathan Stray, “Data, uncertainty, and Specialization: What journalism kan learn from FiveThirtyEight’s election by coverage,”Nieman Journalism Lab, October 31, 2012.
  122. Jennifer Ouellette, “Why Math is Like the Honey Badger: Nate Silver,”Scientific American, November 7, 2012; and Bora Zivkovic, “Nate Silver and the ascendance of Expertise,”Scientific American, November 14, 2012.
  123. Jump up^ Today Show, November 9, 2012.
  124. Jump up^ “Silver on Daily Show, Nov. 7, 2012” . Thedailyshow.com . Retrieved January 5, 2013 .
  125. Jump up^ Morning Joe on November 20, 2012.
  126. Jump up^ “ABC News” This Week ” ” . Abcnews.go.com . Retrieved January 5, 2013 .
  127. Jump up^ “FiveThirtyEight.com earns the Distinction of being the first blog selected as a Notable Narrative. In his posts, former economic analyst and baseball stats wunderkind Nate Silver wordt uitgelegd the presidential race, using the dramatic tension inherent in the run-up to Election Day to drive his narrative …. “See Nieman Storyboard . [Retrieved July 12, 2012].
  128. Jump up^ Mike Colias,”Nate Silver,” Chicago Business , November 3, 2008. For a video interview related to this profile, seaNate Silver, FiveThirtyEight.com.
  129. Jump up^ Clifford, Stephanie (November 10, 2008). “Finding Fame With a Prescient Call for Obama” . nytimes.com . Retrieved November 10, 2008 .
  130. Jump up^ Nate Silver, “What to Watch For – An hour-by-hour guide to election by night”,Newsweek.com, November 3, 2008.
  131. Jump up^ Year in Review: Murder, Politics And Crocs – The top 10 must viewed stories on Newsweek.com in 2008, “ Newsweek.com, January 23, 2008.
  132. Jump up^ The Daily Beast, January 21, 2008.
  133. Jump up^ James Wolcott, “The Good, the Bad, and Joe Lieberman,” VanityFair.com,February 2009.
  134. Jump up^ “The Web Celeb 25″Forbes.com , January 29, 2009.
  135. Jump up^ Rolling Stone , April 2009.
  136. Jump up^ “THE WEEK Opinion Awards” . The Week . Retrieved May 8, 2009 .
  137. Jump up^ New York Times Magazine “Forensic Polling Analysis”.
  138. Jump up^ CEDA Awards. “CEDA Awards” . Awards.cedadebate.org . Retrieved August 21, 2012 .
  139. Jump up^ John F. Harris, “The Most Powerful People On Earth: My Picks: Bloggers,” Forbes magazine, November 22, 2010(retrieved online at Forbes.com).
  140. Jump up^ “16th Annual Out100” . OUT Magazine . January 9, 2010 . Retrieved October 27, 2012 .
  141. Jump up^ Jim Romenesko, “Silver’s advice to young journalists in the digital age,” Poynter ,May 23, 2011.
  142. Jump up^ “Text of Henry Pringle Lecture, 2011” (PDF) . May 17, 2011 . Retrieved August 21, 2012 .
  143. Jump up^ “Crain’s New York” . Mycrains.crainsnewyork.com. March 24, 2012 . Retrieved August 21, 2012 .
  144. Jump up^ “2012 Webby winner” . Webbyawards.com. Archived from the originalon August 20, 2012 . Retrieved August 21, 2012 .
  145. Jump up^ “Nate Silver: Scourge of the Pundits,” Rolling Stone , December 12, 2012, p. 66.
  146. Jump up^ Aaron Hicklin, “Nate Silver: Person of the Year,”Out,December 18, 2012.
  147. Jump up^ “Best year in Washington: Nate Silver,” Washington Post ,January 29, 2012.
  148. Jump up^ Out 2013 Power List.
  149. Jump up^ “17th Annual Webby Awards,” Best Political Blog ” ” . Winners.webbyawards.com . Retrieved January 5, 2013 .
  150. Jump up^ “! 00 Most Creative People in Business 2013” Fast Company ,May 2013; and Jon Gertner, “The Data Demystifier,” Fast Company ,May 2013.
  151. Jump up^ Ripon 2013 videoor Ripon College honorary degree award and COMMENCEMENT speech.
  152. Jump up^ New School in 2013 COMMENCEMENT video.
  153. Jump up^ “Past Award Winners” . Alumni Association: Alumni, Parents, Families & Friends .
  154. Jump up^ “Newhouse” Mirror Awards ” ” . Mirrorawards.syr.edu. June 5, 2013 . Retrieved January 5, 2013 .
  155. Jump up^ “Joint Statistical Meetings 2013” . Amstat.org . Retrieved January 5, 2013 .
  156. Jump up^ For an interview conducted at this meeting, see “Nate Silver: What I Need from Statisticians,”Statistics Views, August 23, 2013.
  157. Jump up^ “Honorary Doctorate for Nate Silver,”lstat Leuven Statistics Research Centre.
  158. Jump up^ Luc Vander Elst, “Honorary doctorate for Nate Silver, the man who made statistics cool,” KU Leuven,December 18, 2013.
  159. Jump up^ “Measure Ad Age’s 40 Under 40,”January 20, 2014.
  160. Jump up^ Honorary doctorate from Amherst,2014.
  161. Jump up^ “193rd COMMENCEMENT at Amherst College” . masslive.com .
  162. Jump up^ AAPOR Award[1]. The citation read: “2015 Warren J. Mitofsky Innovators Award to Nate Silver for Contributions to the General Public and Mass Media in the Realm of Statistical Literacy and Thinking. Through his work as Founding Director and Editor in Chief of FiveThirtyEight.com Nate Silver has made significant innovative contributions to how journalists report and the general public understands presidential and Congressional elections in the United States, and how public opinion polling is-used in dat framework. Silver’s focus on the Electoral College, Rather dan the popular vote, has Fundamentally reshaped how presidential elections are Reported, leading to a grotere public and journalistic awareness of how the electoral political process operates. Silver’s application of probability theory and statistical inference to politics, public policy, economics, and daily life in FiveThirtyEight.com has advanced and highlighted statistical literacy and thinking as an approach to solving problems in a number of areas. One example is the use of polling aggregation to Identify central tendencies and outliers in the analysis of elections. AAPOR ook onderkent and laud’s Silver’s commitment to transparency and full disclosure in FiveThirtyEight’s research methods and practice. These principles Remain the bedrock on welke scientific inquiry is grounded. “
  163. Jump up^ MoMath 2016 Gala
  164. Jump up^ COSH, Colby (January 19, 2010). “Mr. Overrated” . Macleans . Retrieved November 6, 2012 .
  165. Jump up^ Dunn, Geoffrey (September 7, 2012). “FiveThirtyHate ?: Nate Silver Gets His Numbers Crossed in Charlotte” . Huffington Post . Retrieved November 3, 2012 .
  166. Jump up^ Gregory Ferenstein, “Why Pundits and politicians Hate NYT Election Forecaster Nate Silver,”TechCrunch , October 30, 2012.
  167. Jump up^ Nate Silver, “Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly,”FiveThirtyEight, November 4, 2010.
  168. Jump up^ Finkel, Mendy (November 2, 2012). “Nate Silver’s Rasmussen politics” . Daily Caller . Retrieved November 3, 2012 .
  169. Jump up^ Jordan, Josh (October 22, 2012). “Nate Silver’s flawed model” . National Review . Retrieved November 3, 2012 .
  170. Jump up^ Sullivan, Margaret (November 1, 2012). “Under Attack, Nate Silver Picks the Wrong Defense” . New York Times . Retrieved November 3, 2012 . . For a critical comment sea Andrew Beaujon, “New York Times wants to hold Nate Silver to newsroom standards”Poynter , November 2, 2012.
  171. Jump up^ For discussion or another “pundits vs. Nate Silver” case, see John Cassidy, “Brooks vs. Silver: The Limits of Forecasting Elections”The New Yorker , October 24, 2012.
  172. Jump up^ Joe Scarborough, “My (Semi) Apology to Nate Silver,”Politico, November 21, 2012.
  173. Jump up^ Klein, Ezra (October 30, 2012). “The Nate Silver Backlash” . Washington Post . Retrieved November 3, 2012 .
  174. Jump up^ “Nate Silver and The Trials of a Forecaster”ThreeHundredEight.com, November 6, 2012.
  175. ^ Jump up to:a b “Nate Silver Inspired by Ferguson Tells Idiotic Judgment Story” “Archived copy” . Archived from the original on August 18, 2014 . Retrieved 2014-08-18 . .
  176. ^ Jump up to:a b “Nate Silver Is Sorry for Count His” misguided and Naive ‘burrito Judgment Story During the Ferguson Protests ” [2] .
  177. ^ Jump up to:a b “Nate Silver Tells Tone Deaf burrito Judgment Story Amid Protests Ferguson, Gets Burned Epically” [3] .
  178. Jump up^ Rose, Charlie (Host) (October 29, 2012). “Mark Halperin of Time magazine and Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com on the Presidential election by” . Charlie Rose . PBS . Retrieved October 6, 2013 .
  179. Jump up^ See comments toInterfaith Families, Nov. 13, 2012[retrieved January 1, 2012]
  180. Jump up^ Carole Cadwalladr, “Nate Silver: it’s the numbers, stupid”The Observer , November 17, 2012.
  181. ^ Jump up to:a b Carole Cadwalladr, “Nate Silver: it’s the numbers, stupid,”The Observer , November 17, 2012.
  182. Jump up^ Japhy Grant, “Nate Silver on African-Americans, and Prop 8. Being A Hero to Gays & Geeks Everywhere” Queerty , November 21, 2008. [retrieved 6 November, 2012]
  183. Jump up^ Change Does not Come Usually This Fast, Nate Silver,FiveThirtyEight, June 26, 2015, Accessed June 29, 2015
  184. Jump up^ Zak Stambor, “Number Cruncher,” University of Chicago Magazine , July-August 2008.
  185. Jump up^ “BurritoBracket.com” . Burritobracket.blogspot.com. February 23, 2004 . Retrieved August 21, 2012 .
  186. Jump up^ On the role ofThe Burrito BracketSilver’s engagement blogging sea Dan Cohen, “The Ivory Tower and the Open Web: Introduction: Burritos, Browsers, and Books,”Dan Cohen’s Digital Humanities blog, July 26, 2011. [retrieved August 6, 2011]
  187. Jump up^ See Hageman, Cited to post; Kaiser, Rob (October 3, 2004). “Players Place Bets on Poker as Career” . Chicago Tribune . Retrieved July 2, 2009 .
  188. Jump up^ Silver, Nate (July 2, 2009). “This Post Brought to You by Poker” . FiveThirtyEight.com . Retrieved November 12, 2012.