Didier Sornette

Didier Sornette (born June 25, 1957 in Paris ) Professor on the Chair or Entrepreneurial Risks at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETH Zurich) . He is ook a professor of the Swiss Finance Institute , and a professor associated with zowel the Department of Physics and the Department of Earth Sciences at ETH Zurich. He was to post Jointly a Professor of Geophysics at UCLA, Los Angeles, California and a Research Director on the theory and prediction of complex systems at the French National Center for Scientific Research .

Endo-exo dynamics

In 2004, Sornette-used Amazon.com sales data to create a mathematical model for predicting bestseller potential based on very early sales results. [1] [2] [3] This was developed to remit characterise the dynamics of success or YouTube videos. [4] This zorgt a general framework to analysis precursory and aftershock properties of shocks and ruptures in finance, material rupture , Earthquakes , amazon.com sales: his work has Documented ubiquitous power laws similar to the Omori law in seismology therein allow directive to distinguish one tussen external shocks and endogenous self-organization . [5]

Bubbles and tarragon equations

He is Berninahaus for his work on financial bubbles , [6] [7] [8] and has set up the Financial Crisis Observatory. [9] He has developed the Dragon King Theory or extreme events. [10] [11]

Social bubble hypothesis

Together with Monika GISLER, have introduced the social bubble hypothesis [12] in a form dat kan be scrutinized methodically: [13] [14] [15] [16] strong Social Interactions tussen enthusiastic supporters of an idea / concept / project weave a network based on positive feedbacks , leading to widespread endorsement and extraordinary commitment to Those involved in the respective project beyond what would be rationalized at a standard cost-benefit analysis . [17] The social bubble hypothesis does not cast ANY value system , however, notwithstanding the use of the term “bubble” is welke of or in associated with a negative outcome. Rather, it identifies the types of dynamics therein shape scientific or technologische ENDEAVORS. In other words, volgens to the social bubble hypothesis, major projects do in general Proceed through a social bubble mechanism. In other words, it is claimed therein must of the Disruptive Innovations go through zoals a social bubble dynamics.

The social bubble hypothesis is related to Schumpeter’s famous creative destruction and to the “technologische economic paradigm shift” of the social economist Carlota Perez [18] [19]who studies bubbles as Antecedents or “techno-economic paradigm shifts.” Drawing from his professional experience as a venture capitalist, William H. Janeway similarly stresses the positive role of asset bubbles in financing technologische innovations. [20]

Civil super-Manhattan project in nuclear research

He has Recently Proposed a civil super- Manhattan project in nuclear research for a safer and prosperous world, [21] based on two observations: (i) Mankind progress is based on the access to ample, cheap and-concentrated energy and this is for all the more important with the current population growth ; (ii) Humankind is Confronted with a “nuclear Stewardship curse”, facing the prospect of needing to manage nuclear products over long time scales in the face of the short-time scales of human politics. To address synthesis two issues, he has Proposed an effort to rejuvenate the nuclear energy industry to Overcome the current dead-end in welke it FINDS Itself. He is Advocating a paradigm shift from a low probability of incidents / accidents to a zero-accident technology and a genuine detoxification of the wastes. He estimates the effort to be about 1% GDP investment over a decade in the main nuclear countries Could boost economic growth .

The Swiss franc as a “precious metal” and the Swiss Sovereign Fund

In 2015, in reaction to the extraordinary pressure on the Swiss franc and the general debate dat a strong Swiss franc is a problem for Switzerland, he has introduced the contrarian concept dat a strong Swiss franc is an extraordinary opportunity for Switzerland. He argues dat the strong Swiss franc is the emergence (in the sense of complex adaptive systems ) or the aggregate qualities of Switzerland, haar political systems, haar infrastructure, haar arbeidsorganisatie and ethics, haar culture and much more. He proposés to “mine” Swiss francs to stabilize the exchange Against the euro to an economically and politically consensus (dat Could be around 1:20 to 1:25 ChF per euro) and buy as much euros and dollars as is Necessary for this. The Proceeds will be reinvested in a Swiss Sovereign Fund, welke Could reach a size of one trillion euros or more, volgens to the strategically-used by the Norvegian sovereign fund, the Singaporean sovereign funds and university endowment funds zoals Harvard or Stanford. A full English version and a presentation kan be found at [1] . A summary of the arguments has leg Presented in the German speaking media [22] [2] .


  • Scale invariance and beyond “(with B. Dubrulle and F. Graner, eds.), EDP Sciences and Springer, Berlin, 1997, 286 pages.
  • Why Stock Markets Crash (Critical Events in Complex Financial Systems) Princeton University Press, 2003. ISBN 0-691-09630-9
  • Critical Phenomena in Natural Sciences, Chaos, Fractals, Self-organization and Disorder: Concepts and Tools, Second Edition , Springer Series in Synergetics, Heidelberg, 2004. ISBN 3-540-40754-5
  • Extreme Financial Risks (From dependence to risk management) (with Y. Malevergne). Springer, Heidelberg, 2005.
  • Theory of Zipf’s law and beyond (with A. Saichev and Y. Malevergne), Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Volume 632, Springer (November 2009), ISBN 978-3-642-02945-5
  • Man-made Catastrophes and Risk Information Concealment (25 case studies of major disasters and human fallibility) (with Dmitry Chernov). Springer, 1st ed. 2016 edition (October 28, 2015) (342 pages), DOI 10.1007 / 978-3-319-24301-6, Hardcover ISBN 978-3-319-24299-6 , eBook ISBN 978-3-319-24301-6


  1. Jump up^ Sornette, D .; Deschatres, F .; Gilbert, T .; Ageon, Y (2004). “Endogenous Versus Exogenous shocks in Complex Networks: an Empirical Test Using Book Sale Ranking”. Physical Review Letters . arXiv : cond-mat / 0310135 .
  2. Jump up^ “Researchers use physics to analyseren dynamics of bestsellers”. PhysOrg.com: December 5, 2004. Retrieved December 7, 2005.
  3. Jump up^ “UCLA Physicist Applies Physics to Best-Selling Books”. UCLA News: December 1, 2004. Retrieved December 7, 2005.
  4. Jump up^ R. Crane and D. Sornette, Robust dynamic classes revealed by Measuring theresponse functionor a social system, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 105 (41), 15649-15653 (2008)
  5. Jump up^ http://www.er.ethz.ch/media/essays/origins.html
  6. Jump up^ http://www.er.ethz.ch/media/publications/social-systems-finance/bubbles_and_crashes_theory.html
  7. Jump up^ http://www.er.ethz.ch/media/publications/social-systems-finance/bubbles_and_crashes_theory_empirical_analyses.html
  8. Jump up^ “Didier Sornette How we kan predictors the next financial crisis” . TED. June 2013 . Retrieved 19 June 2013 .
  9. Jump up^ http://www.er.ethz.ch/financial-crisis-observatory.html
  10. Jump up^ D. Sornette, Dragon Kings, Black Swans and the Prediction of Crises, International Journal of Terraspace Science and Engineering 2009
  11. Jump up^ Sornette, D., Ouillon, G. Dragon equations: Mechanisms, statistical methods and empirical evidence, The European Physical Journal Special Topics, 2012
  12. Jump up^ http://www.er.ethz.ch/media/publications/social-systems-finance/social_bubbles.html
  13. Jump up^ Monika GISLER and Didier Sornette, exuberant Innovations: The Apollo Program, Society 46, 55-68 (2009) DOI: 10.1007 / s12115-008-9163-8
  14. Jump up^ Monika GISLER; Didier Sornette; Ryan Woodard (2011). “Innovation as a Social Bubble: The Example of the Human Genome Project.” Research Policy . 40 : 1412-1425. doi : 10.1016 / j.respol.2011.05.019 .
  15. Jump up^ Monika GISLER and Didier Sornette, Bubbles Everywhere in Human Affairs, chapter in book entitled “Modern RISC Societies. Towards a New Framework for Societal Evolution”, L. Kajfez Bogataj, KH Mueller, I. Svetlik, N. Tos ( eds.), Wien, edition echoraum: 137-153 (2010)
  16. Jump up^ http://ssrn.com/abstract=1590816
  17. Jump up^ D. Sornette, Nurture Breakthroughs; Lessons from Complexity Theory, Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination 3, 165-181 (2008)
  18. Jump up^ Perez, C. 2002. Technological revolutions and Financial Capital. The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham / Northampton
  19. Jump up^ Perez, C. 2009. The double bubble at the turn of the century: technologische roots and structural implications. Cambridge Journal of Economics 33: 779-805, doi: 10.1093 / cje / bep028
  20. Jump up^ Janeway, WH 2012: Doing Capitalism in the Innovation Economy, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
  21. Jump up^ D. Sornette (2015). “A civil super-Manhattan project in nuclear R & D for a safer and prosperous world.” Energy Research & Social Science . 8 : 60-65. arXiv : 1504.06985 . doi : 10.1016 / j.erss.2015.04.007 .
  22. Jump up^ D. Sornette, Ein Schweizer Souveränitätsfonds, Politik & Wirtschaft, Schweizer Monat 1030, 26-31 (October 2015)